So as I am channel surfing, and I come across the show Pass Time. I watched two episodes straight through last night. For those of you who have never seen it, the show is a drag race crossed with a game show. Three contestants must guess the pass time of a hot rod in the quarter mile. If they are the closest they win. The process they go through is exactly the same process we as developers go through when estimating a feature.
The process of the show is fairly straightforward. First the driver may introduce their car, and the contestants may ask them three questions. Usually something about estimated horse power, if the car has nitrous, or other types of modifications or parts. The contestants make their guesses, and the driver runs down the track, and the person who is the closest gets $100. Repeat until the end of the show, whoever has the most wins. The video below explains it.
To tie this back into software development, and how this is like estimating a feature request. Usually when some one requests a feature, you as the software developer has to come up with an estimate on how long it will take. The requester or an intermediary will come to you and explain the feature, you will have to ask them questions, these questions will help you figure out the basic details about the request.
You like the contestants you must rely on your knowledge and experience to put up a guess on how long it will take. It is an educated guess. Maybe there will be a driver or mechanical error which could drastically alter actual time. The same is true implementing any feature, maybe their will be programmer error, or an unforeseen complication with the underlying system. Our best estimates will not usually take this into account.
Some people are better at estimation, but a lot of estimation is experience. Usually the first question or thought you have is: “Have you seen something like this, or at least something with similar components.” The more projects you work on, the more you can observe and learn about what slows down or speeds up a project, and use this as a base for estimates. Most quick estimates we make a calculation of a positive and negative factors on some base which is familiar. This is exactly what the contestants are doing.
